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The 8•16•40 Crisis: Why New Zealand's future workforce depends on action today
- STEM Alliance
- Mar 11
- 2 min read
Updated: Apr 1
Aotearoa New Zealand stands at a critical juncture. In just 16 years, 40% of our under-40 workforce will be Māori and Pasifika. Yet today only 8% of STEM tertiary students come from these communities.
This stark disparity represents both a challenge and an opportunity that will shape our nation's economic future.
Understanding the numbers
The "8•16•40" framework isn't just a catchy slogan — it's a data-driven wake-up call:
8% – Currently, Māori and Pasifika students represent only about 8% of students in Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) programmes at our tertiary institutions.
16 years – By 2041, demographic projections show a significant shift in our working-age population.
40% – Māori and Pasifika will represent approximately 40% of our workforce under the age of 40.
These numbers come from a combination of Statistics New Zealand population projections and educational enrolment data. The trend is clear and undeniable.
Why this matters for all New Zealanders
The implications of this gap extend far beyond equity considerations (though those are vital). This is fundamentally about New Zealand's economic resilience and competitiveness:
Infrastructure Development – Who will design and build our future cities, transportation systems, and digital infrastructure?
Innovation Capacity – Will New Zealand have the homegrown talent needed to drive technological innovation?
Economic Growth – STEM careers typically offer higher wages, better job security, and greater economic output.
Global Competitiveness – As other nations invest heavily in STEM education, New Zealand risks falling behind.
The cost of inaction
If we continue on our current path, the consequences are predictable:
Growing skills shortages across key industries
Increased reliance on imported talent
Missed opportunities for innovation and productivity growth
Widening income inequality along ethnic lines
Early signs of the challenge
This isn't just a future problem — we're already seeing its effects:
Engineering firms report difficulties filling positions
The tech sector faces ongoing talent shortages
Infrastructure projects experience delays due to skills gaps
Critical industries like healthcare technology struggle to find specialised workers
Large technology projects are falling over due to talent migration to higher paying jobs in larger economies
The path forward
Addressing the 8-16-40 gap requires a coordinated approach from multiple stakeholders:
Educational institutions must integrate STEM project-based learning into their curriculum
Businesses need to engage with young people earlier to inspire career aspirations
Government must prioritise policies that support STEM education
Parents/Whānau need to be educated on the potential of STEM careers
Join the conversation
Throughout this campaign, we'll explore different dimensions of this challenge and highlight solutions that are working. We invite you to be part of this crucial conversation about Aotearoa New Zealand's future. Or invite us in to your crucial conversation about talent development to explore how we can help.
Next week: Why STEM skills matter across all industries, not just traditional science and technology sectors
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